The key to this happening is ironically equally divided between the rebellious Sunni triangle of Iraq; and its increasingly turbulent Shiite south; and ironically also in it's the relatively stable Kurdish north, the area where American policy has been most successful. If you're a Kurdish leader in northern Iraq watching the mess unfolding in the rest of the country, the questions increasingly running through your mind would be: How long before we Kurds give up on a united Iraq and choose independence?

In Iraq, today there are three possibilities:

- an Iraq convulsed by violence for years to come;
- a Shiite-dominated Iraq; or
- an Iraq that fragments.

The first possibility could unleash Islamist forces in Saudi Arabia (and also in the Gulf countries, Yemen, Egypt, Libya), inviting greater American involvement for stabilizing the Saudi regime....

Photo credits: egyptdailynews

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And if Kurds break away from Iraq, that would enrage Turkey, which fears that an independent Iraqi Kurdish state would attract its own 12 million to 14 million Kurds. Iraq's fragmentation also would prove that Washington's vision of a united and democratic Iraq was a pipe dream. A restive Turkish Kurdistan, could strengthen Islamist forces in Turkey, destabilizing Turkish Democracy and weakening the secular traditions of Kemal Ataturk, pulling Turkey even further from the possibility of EU membership, giving rise to the demand for an Islamist Turkey, if not, hopefully, for a revival of the Khilafat (Caliphate) abolished by Kemal Atraturk in 1920. A Turkish civil war on the lines of what happened in Algeria cannot be ruled out entirely.

Coming back to Iraq, for the Kurds of Iraq, after decades of torture, mass executions, forced relocation and chemical attacks by Saddam Hussein's monstrous regime, the Kurds today have a chance to chart their destiny. So far, they have followed the American script. But today there are three possibilities:

- an Iraq convulsed by violence for years to come;
- a Shiite-dominated Iraq; or
- an Iraq that fragments.

The first possibility could unleash Islamist forces in Saudi Arabia (and also in the Gulf countries, Yemen, Egypt, Libya), inviting greater American involvement for stabilizing the Saudi regime with limited intervention in Egypt and elsewhere.

The second possibility of a Shiite-dominated Iraq, would strengthen Iran, inviting an American pre-emptive strike on Iran after the American Presidential elections leading to further convulsions in the wider Islamic world, especially in Pakistan.

The third possibility of an Iraq that fragments, is equally perilous, since it would destabilize Turkey. The increasing upheaval we see today makes it increasingly necessary to contemplate all the three possibilities; all of which translate to one eventuality – a Middle East in ferment. And to be buried in this chaos will be the rubble of our blueprint for a democratic Iraq that was to transform the Middle East's landscape into a benign zone of Jeffersonian democracy.

What we see in Iraq today is:

Terrorists assassinating Ministers, Parliamentarians and the beginnings of a full scale civil war between the Sunni dominated insurgents and the new Shia and Kurd Iraqi military
What we may see tomorrow could involve" • Iran sending in insurgents to back Shias
• Saudis, Syrians, Egyptians, Kuwaitis, Palestinians sending in insurgents to back Sunnis
• Saudis and Kuwaitis calling for US action to stop Iran from intensifying the Iraqi civil war
• US seizing the opportunity and bombs Iranian nuke facilities
• Iran trying to crash missiles into Israel and Europe
• Internal rebellion breaking out in Iran
• US special forces starting operating inside Iran to topple Mullah regime
• Iranian/Hezbollah forces staging terrorist attacks in Israel and in the West
• US launching an air blitz of Iran followed by a land invasion and setting up a new regime
• Shia-Hezbollah led terror attacking across the West and Israel intensify
• Israel entering Lebanon to wipe out the Hezbollah threat
• Egypt/Syria threatening Israel with serious consequences.
• Terrorist attacks originating from Gaza intensifing in Israel
• Israel warning Syria with military action
• Spectacular mega terror attack in Israel
• Israel declaring Syria to be culpable and launching a swift land and air assault on Syria
• Syria appealing for Arab military action to save itself
• Israel occupying Damascus
• US forces entering Syria from Syrian-Iraqi border in the North, join up with Israeli military
• Mecca, Medina, Mena, Jiddah taken off the map thru IAF (Israel Air Force) nuke strikes
• Upheaval in the entire Arab world
• Jihadis succeed in smuggling nuclear devices in the US and exploding them simultaneously
In this scenario, what may work is far too ruthless to contemplate. This involves that we re-enact what the allies did in Dresden in the closing years of the World War II; but would the Bush administration be ready to go this far? Unless, of course, by then the Jihadis succeed in launching their much vaunted nuclear strike against the West, that they boast will upset the balance of power and re-define the parameters of victory and defeat for them and for the West. A boast yes, but not empty enough to prevent millions of civilian deaths in the West, and devastating enough to enrage the democratic world to carry the war on terror to a successful finish at a cost in terms of human lives that has become unimaginable since the days of Hiroshima.

Story Credits: Waronjihad Team

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